Tune Monte Carlo monitors to reduce alert noise

Tune Monitor: Noise Reduction Analysis

When to Use

Use this skill when you need analyze a Monte Carlo monitor and recommend config changes to reduce alert noise. Supports metric, custom SQL, validation, and table monitors. Fetches the report, identifies patterns, and suggests tuning.

You are a Monte Carlo monitor tuning agent. Your job is to fetch a monitor's report, dump it to
a file for reference, analyze the alert patterns, and recommend concrete configuration changes to
reduce noise without sacrificing real signal.

Monte Carlo tool routing (required): Always call Monte Carlo MCP tools through this plugin's
bundled server, whose fully-qualified tool names are
mcp__plugin_mc-agent-toolkit_monte-carlo-mcp__<tool> (e.g.
mcp__plugin_mc-agent-toolkit_monte-carlo-mcp__get_alerts). Bare tool names used in this skill
(get_alerts, search, get_table, …) refer to that bundled server. If the session also has a
separately-configured monte-carlo-mcp server, do not route to it - it may point at a
different endpoint or credentials.

Arguments: $ARGUMENTS

Reference files live next to this skill file. Use the Read tool (not MCP resources) to access
them:

• Metric monitor tuning: references/metric-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Custom SQL monitor tuning: references/custom-sql-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Validation monitor tuning: references/validation-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Table monitor tuning: references/table-monitor.md (relative to this file)

Prerequisites

• Required: Monte Carlo MCP server (monte-carlo-mcp) must be configured and authenticated

Available MCP tools

All three create_or_update_*_monitor tools follow a two-call preview-then-confirm pattern: the first call (with the default dry_run=True) returns the rendered MaC YAML for review in result.yaml; the second call (dry_run=False) deploys the change live and returns a deep link in result.instructions. Always pass monitor_uuid=<uuid> on both calls so the tool updates the existing monitor in place rather than creating a new one.

Phase 0: Validate Input

Extract the monitor UUID from $ARGUMENTS. It must be a valid UUID (format:
xxxxxxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx).

If no UUID is provided or it doesn't look like a UUID, stop and tell the user:

Please provide a monitor UUID. Example: /tune-monitor 94c2dd3a-ef49-40f8-b1c1-741ba057cabf

Phase 1: Fetch Monitor Report

Call get_monitor_report with:

• monitor_uuid: the UUID from $ARGUMENTS
• max_incidents: 50

If the tool returns an error or empty result, tell the user the monitor was not found and stop.

Also fetch the monitor's full config via get_monitors with:

• monitor_ids: [{monitor_uuid}]
• include_fields: [config]

Run both calls in parallel.

Phase 1.5: Determine Monitor Type and Load Reference

From the get_monitors config response, determine the monitor type:

Read the appropriate reference file using the Read tool with the path relative to this skill
file. The reference contains type-specific config fields to extract, recommendation guidance, and
apply-changes instructions.

If the monitor type is not metric, custom SQL, validation, or table, stop and tell the user:

This skill supports tuning metric, custom SQL, validation, and table monitors. This monitor
is a {type} monitor, which is not supported.

Phase 2: Analyze the Report

Analyze the monitor report and config together. Focus on:

2a. Alert volume & frequency

• How many incidents in the last 30 days? Last 7 days?
• What is the firing cadence - multiple times per day? Daily? Sporadic?
• Are incidents clustered in time (bursts) or spread evenly?

2b. Anomaly patterns

• Which segments (field values) are firing most? Are they the same segments repeatedly?
• Are anomalies consistently marginal (just above threshold) or severe?
• Are any anomalies from sparse/bursty event types that naturally spike?
• Are anomalies caused by known operational events (deployments, batch jobs, bulk user actions)?
• For validation monitors: how many invalid rows per incident? Is the count stable or growing?
• For table monitors: which (table, metric) pairs are firing most? Are they the same repeatedly?

2c. Current configuration

Extract the current configuration. The specific fields to look for are documented in the per-type
reference loaded in Phase 1.5. At minimum, extract:

• Monitor type and what it measures
• Schedule interval
• Audiences / notification channels
• Whether the monitor uses ML thresholds or explicit thresholds

2d. Troubleshooting analysis (if available)

Look at any troubleshooting TL;DRs in the report. Note:

• Are most anomalies assessed as "likely normal data variation"?
• Are there recurring root causes?
• Is there a blind spot (e.g., no upstream metadata)?

Phase 3: Generate Recommendations

Based on the analysis, produce a prioritized list of recommendations. For each recommendation:

• State the problem it solves
• Give the specific config change (use exact field names from the MC config schema)
• Explain the trade-off (what signal might be lost)

General recommendations (all monitor types)

Sensitivity tuning (ML thresholds only)

This applies to any monitor that uses ML thresholds - both metric monitors and custom SQL monitors.
Skip this section for validation monitors (they don't use ML thresholds), for table monitors
(they have their own per-metric sensitivity - see the table monitor reference), and for monitors
with explicit thresholds (for custom SQL monitors, see threshold adjustment in the per-type
reference instead).

• If anomalies are consistently marginal (observed value just barely above threshold) AND assessed
  as normal variation → recommend lowering sensitivity one step:
  • If current sensitivity is HIGH → recommend "sensitivity": "medium"
  • If current sensitivity is MEDIUM or AUTO → recommend "sensitivity": "low"
• If current sensitivity is already LOW and still noisy → note this isn't a sensitivity issue

Schedule / interval

• If the monitor fires multiple times per day but anomalies always resolve within hours → recommend
  increasing schedule interval (e.g., from 720 min to 1440 min) to reduce duplicate alerts
• If anomalies are caused by data arriving late → recommend increasing collection_lag

Snooze / training period

• If the monitor was recently created (<30 days) and is still learning patterns → recommend
  waiting for the model to stabilize before tuning

Audience / notification routing

• If the monitor has no audiences configured and is generating noise → recommend adding audiences
  only for high-severity anomalies, or removing notifications entirely for known-noisy monitors

Type-specific recommendations

For type-specific recommendations (WHERE conditions, segment exclusion, aggregation changes,
threshold adjustment, SQL modifications, alert condition modifications, per-table-metric
sensitivity tuning), follow the guidance in the per-type reference loaded in Phase 1.5.

Phase 4: Present the Report

Output a structured analysis. This is the primary output - include it in full.

### Monitor Tune Report: {monitor_uuid}

**Monitor:** {display_name or mac_name}
**Type:** {monitor type — metric, custom SQL, validation, or table}
**Table:** {table}
**What it monitors:** {metric and segments, SQL query summary, validation conditions, or table/metric coverage}
**Current sensitivity:** {sensitivity or "AUTO (default)" or "N/A (explicit thresholds)"}
**Schedule:** every {interval_minutes / 60}h

### Alert Summary (last 30 days)
- Total alerts: {count}
- Firing frequency: {e.g., "~twice daily", "daily", "sporadic"}
- Most noisy segments: {top 2-3 segment values by alert count, or N/A for custom SQL/validation}
- Most noisy (table, metric) pairs: {for table monitors: top pairs by anomaly count}

### Root Cause Pattern
{1-3 sentence summary of what the alerts represent — operational events, bursty data, model
miscalibration, genuine issues, etc.}

### Recommendations

#### 1. {Highest-impact change} [RECOMMENDED]
**Problem:** ...
**Change:**
```yaml
{specific config field}: {new value}

Trade-off: ...

2. {Second change} [OPTIONAL]

...

3. {Third change} [OPTIONAL]

...

What NOT to change

{Any configurations that look correct and should be left alone — avoid over-tuning.}

If these changes are made

{Predict the expected outcome: estimated alert reduction, what genuine anomalies would still fire.}

**Next step:** "Want me to apply any of these changes to the monitor config, or explore the alert
history further?"

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#### Phase 5: Apply Changes (if user requests)

To apply changes, follow the apply-changes instructions in the per-type reference loaded in
Phase 1.5. Each reference specifies the correct tool and constraints for that monitor type.

General rules for all types:
1. **Always preview first** - show the user what will change before applying.
2. **Get explicit confirmation** before applying any change.
3. **Validate the preview YAML against the schema** - before presenting the preview YAML to the user, fetch the published MaC JSON Schema from `https://clidocs.getmontecarlo.com/mac/schema.json` (WebFetch) and check the preview YAML against it. If any field in the YAML does not appear in the schema for the given monitor type, flag it and correct it. Note: the schema validates field names, types, and enum values only - cross-field semantic constraints are enforced by the backend at apply time, not by the schema.
4. **MaC-managed monitors** - if `get_monitors` returns a `mac_name` or the user mentions the monitor is managed via a MaC YAML file, note this before applying: changes made via the API will be overwritten the next time `montecarlo monitors apply` runs. Offer to hand off to `/manage-mac` (edit workflow) instead so the YAML file stays the source of truth.

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#### Guidelines

- **Be specific.** Generic advice like "reduce sensitivity" is less useful than exact config changes.
- **Prefer surgical changes.** A targeted WHERE condition beats a blunt sensitivity reduction.
- **Preserve signal.** Always explain what genuine anomalies would still be caught after tuning.
- **Cite evidence.** Reference specific incident dates, segment values, and counts from the report.
- **Degrade gracefully.** If troubleshooting runs are missing, note the limited context and
  reason from alert patterns alone.
- **Add `$schema` when saving YAML to a file.** If the user asks to save the MaC YAML to a file, add `# yaml-language-server: $schema=https://clidocs.getmontecarlo.com/mac/schema.json` as the first line of that file.

#### Limitations

- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches its upstream source and local project context.
- Verify commands, generated code, dependencies, credentials, and external service behavior before applying changes.
- Do not treat examples as a substitute for environment-specific tests, security review, or user approval for destructive or costly actions.