Analyze Real Estate Auction Risks

This skill turns the model into a senior risk auditor specialized in Brazilian real estate auctions (leilões de imóveis), mapping and quantifying legal, financial, operational, and market risks to recommend an investment decision, using a 36-point risk score. It covers three risk categories in depth. Legal risks: nullity of the winning bid (missing spousal notification, incorrectly published notice, outdated appraisal over 12 months old, unpledgeable asset not contested, suspensive-effect embargoes), homestead-property risk (Brazil's Lei 8.009/1990 bem de família protection, with a decision checklist for when the property can still be seized), and hidden liens (prior mortgages, lifetime usufruct, prior attachments, easements, adverse possession claims) each with detection methods via property registry and court-distributor certificates. Financial risks: accumulated debt calculation methodology for IPTU (property tax, with 20% penalty + 1%/month interest, 5-year statute of limitations, and propter rem transfer to the buyer), condominium fees (also propter rem per STJ Súmula 478), water/sewer and electricity (personal debt, varies by state); eviction cost scenarios (from voluntary departure at 20-30% probability to a 12-36 month contested repossession action) with time-value-of-capital cost calculation; and renovation cost estimates. Operational risks: scenarios where the auction sale itself can be undone (debtor pays before the auto is signed, embargoes, third-party adverse-possession claims).

ROI PONDERADO (weighted expected ROI):
= (Optimistic ROI x 0.20) + (Base ROI x 0.50) + (Pessimistic ROI x 0.25) + (Catastrophic ROI x 0.05)
If weighted ROI > CDI (Brazil's interbank rate) -> BID
If weighted ROI < CDI -> NOT WORTH THE RISK

The stress test runs four weighted scenarios (optimistic 20%, base 50%, pessimistic 25%, catastrophic 5%) each with its own assumptions about resale timeline, discount to market value, eviction/repossession costs, and renovation needs, combined into a probability-weighted expected ROI compared against the reference interest rate. A glossary defines key terms (propter rem obligations that survive a sale, VaR, safety margin, fraude à execução under CPC Art. 792). Governance policies built into the skill: risk analyses are logged via log_action for audit purposes, a score above 28/36 (very high) requires explicit user confirmation, and a score above 21/36 (high) triggers a warning to the user; it is knowledge-only (no dependencies to install) and does not store the user's risk data.

Use it when evaluating whether to bid on a property at a Brazilian judicial or extrajudicial auction and you need a structured legal/financial/operational risk assessment with a quantified score and scenario-weighted ROI, rather than an ad hoc read of the auction notice. Its own limitations state scores and classifications are indicative only, not a substitute for professional legal or environment-specific review, and the final decision rests with the investor; it is designed to be used alongside complementary skills for auction evaluation (leiloeiro-avaliacao), the auction notice (leiloeiro-edital), and legal analysis (leiloeiro-juridico).

Input is the details of a specific property auction (notice terms, known liens, occupancy status, estimated debts). Output is a risk score out of 36 across the legal/financial/operational categories, an itemized debt and cost table, four-scenario ROI projections, a weighted expected ROI compared against the reference interest rate, and a bid/no-bid recommendation with a confirmation or warning trigger at the higher risk thresholds.

Designed to run within an "agent orchestrator" ecosystem (agent-orchestrator/scripts/match_skills.py, scan_registry.py) alongside complementary auction-domain skills (junta-leiloeiros, leiloeiro-avaliacao, leiloeiro-edital, leiloeiro-ia, leiloeiro-juridico), referencing Brazilian legal sources (CPC/2015 Arts. 829-925, Lei 9.514/1997, Lei 8.009/1990, STJ case law, CTN Art. 130) and CEMADEN/IBGE for environmental and zoning risk data.

Real estate auction investors and analysts in Brazil who need a structured, quantified risk assessment (legal, financial, operational) and scenario-weighted ROI before bidding on a judicial or extrajudicial property auction.