Analyze Real Estate Auction Assets

Leiloeiro Mercado is a distressed-asset market-analysis skill for Brazilian property auctions, focused on liquidity, typical discount, ROI, and exit strategy timing rather than legal or notice-reading detail. It provides a liquidity map estimating median resale time by property segment (1-2 bedroom apartment, 3-bedroom apartment, condo house, commercial unit, urban lot, logistics warehouse, rural property) across four location tiers (SP/RJ capital, other large capitals, interior, small interior towns), plus the factors that speed a sale (below-market pricing, renovation, clean documentation, good listing photos) versus stall it (unresolved ITBI, poor condition, unpaid debts on the registry, pending litigation).

It breaks down typical discount ranges by auction modality: judicial 1st auctions (20-30% clear rate, 0-15% discount since the floor is the appraisal) versus 2nd auctions (50-70% clear rate, 30-50% discount, up to 65-70% on problem properties); extrajudicial bank auctions under Lei 9.514/97, 1st (30-50% clear rate, 20-35% discount, ~28% historical average at Caixa) versus 2nd (60-80% clear rate, 35-55% discount, floor set at the outstanding debt); and direct bank sales (15-30% discount, less competition, financing up to 80% of appraisal at Caixa). A second discount table maps property condition to expected discount range, from vacant/debt-free/clean documentation (15-25%) to a combination of problems (50-70%).

Four exit strategies are detailed with expected return, timeline, risk, and capital requirements: fast flip (buy at 35%+ discount, light cleanup, sell 15-20% under market for speed, 15-25% gross return in 3-12 months), renovate-and-sell (buy at 40%+ discount, full renovation, sell at a 20-30% renovated-property premium, 30-50% gross return in 6-18 months), buy-and-hold for rental yield (buy at 25%+ discount, yields of 6-12% a.a. versus a 4-6% market baseline), and specialist regularization-and-resale for legally/documentally complex properties (50%+ discount, 40-70% gross return, requires legal expertise). A full ROI simulation template covers acquisition costs (5% commission, 3% ITBI, registry, legal, debts, renovation) against expected sale proceeds net of brokerage and 15% capital-gains tax, benchmarked against CDI (~13.15% a.a.), IPCA, LCI/LCA, and FII yields - noting a rule of thumb that auctions need roughly 25-30% minimum discount to consistently beat CDI after costs.

Market-timing guidance ties the Selic policy rate to auction supply (high Selic - above ~12% - means more defaults, more auction supply, and less competition, a favorable buying window; low Selic below ~9% contracts the auction market) and covers seasonality (December/January and July see less competition; October/November is peak judicial-auction season) and per-bank patterns (Caixa has the largest inventory with FGTS and up to 80% financing options; Santander mid-tier; Itau/Bradesco/BB smaller inventories, clearing stock in December). A buyer-profile-to-channel table, a risk table for exit strategies (market downturn, renovation overrun, zoning changes), and a weekly monitoring routine (portal alerts, new-lot triage against the edital skill's 8 blocks, on-site diligence when ROI exceeds 20%, final decision against the risk-score skill) round out the workflow. Reference indicators (Selic, CDI, IPCA, IGP-M as of Feb 2025) are noted as needing periodic updates.

python agent-orchestrator/scripts/match_skills.py "mercado imobiliario leilao"

Use this skill for market and financial analysis of a Brazilian property auction opportunity - expected liquidity, typical discount for the property's condition, ROI simulation, exit-strategy selection, or timing the market against interest-rate cycles.

Do not use it for tasks unrelated to auction market analysis, when a simpler tool fits, or when the user needs general assistance without this domain expertise. Its projections and estimates do not constitute investment advice, and it flags projected ROI below CDI or negative ROI for user confirmation before proceeding.

Inputs: property segment, location tier, condition/occupancy status, appraisal and expected market value, and acquisition costs for a specific auction lot.

Outputs: an estimated liquidity/resale timeline, a typical-discount estimate for the property's condition, a full ROI simulation (gross/net, annualized) benchmarked against CDI/FII/LCI yields, a recommended exit strategy, and market-timing guidance tied to the Selic rate cycle.

Can be invoked directly or via an orchestrator script (agent-orchestrator/scripts/match_skills.py); companion module within the same auction-analysis ecosystem as leiloeiro-ia, leiloeiro-edital, leiloeiro-juridico, and leiloeiro-risco - designed to consume the edital skill's 8-block checklist and feed the risk-score skill's final decision.

Investors and buyers who need liquidity, discount, and ROI analysis to decide whether and how to bid on a Brazilian property auction, and to choose an exit strategy.